Friday 6 November 2026
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US 10-year minus 2-year

When this gap turns negative, a US recession has often followed.

0.35 points

Latest figure:

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US 10-year minus 2-year

Chart sampled for readability; CSV contains all observations.

percentage points

US 10-year minus 2-year-2-1012US 10-year minus 2-year0.352016202020232026

Source: FRED · As of 6 November 2026

Show the numbers
DateUS 10-year minus 2-year (percentage points)
7 Nov 20161.01
15 Nov 20161.21
22 Nov 20161.24
30 Nov 20161.26
7 Dec 20161.24
14 Dec 20161.27
21 Dec 20161.34
29 Dec 20161.27
6 Jan 20171.2
13 Jan 20171.19
23 Jan 20171.25
30 Jan 20171.27
6 Feb 20171.26
13 Feb 20171.23
21 Feb 20171.21
28 Feb 20171.14
7 Mar 20171.2
14 Mar 20171.2
21 Mar 20171.16
28 Mar 20171.12
4 Apr 20171.11
11 Apr 20171.08
19 Apr 20171.02
26 Apr 20171.04
3 May 20171.03
10 May 20171.06
17 May 20170.96
24 May 20170.97
1 Jun 20170.93
8 Jun 20170.86
15 Jun 20170.81
22 Jun 20170.81
29 Jun 20170.89
7 Jul 20170.99
14 Jul 20170.98
21 Jul 20170.88
28 Jul 20170.96
4 Aug 20170.91
11 Aug 20170.89
18 Aug 20170.86
25 Aug 20170.82
1 Sep 20170.81
11 Sep 20170.82
18 Sep 20170.83
25 Sep 20170.78
2 Oct 20170.85
10 Oct 20170.84
17 Oct 20170.76
24 Oct 20170.82
31 Oct 20170.78
7 Nov 20170.69
14 Nov 20170.7
21 Nov 20170.59
29 Nov 20170.59
6 Dec 20170.55
13 Dec 20170.57
20 Dec 20170.62
28 Dec 20170.52
5 Jan 20180.51
12 Jan 20180.56
22 Jan 20180.58
29 Jan 20180.59
5 Feb 20180.69
12 Feb 20180.77
20 Feb 20180.63
27 Feb 20180.63
6 Mar 20180.63
13 Mar 20180.58
20 Mar 20180.55
27 Mar 20180.52
4 Apr 20180.51
11 Apr 20180.47
18 Apr 20180.45
25 Apr 20180.54
2 May 20180.48
9 May 20180.46
16 May 20180.51
23 May 20180.48
31 May 20180.43
7 Jun 20180.43
14 Jun 20180.35
21 Jun 20180.34
28 Jun 20180.32
6 Jul 20180.29
13 Jul 20180.24
20 Jul 20180.29
27 Jul 20180.29
3 Aug 20180.32
10 Aug 20180.26
17 Aug 20180.26
24 Aug 20180.19
31 Aug 20180.24
10 Sep 20180.21
17 Sep 20180.21
24 Sep 20180.25
1 Oct 20180.27
9 Oct 20180.33
16 Oct 20180.29
23 Oct 20180.28
30 Oct 20180.28
6 Nov 20180.29
14 Nov 20180.26
21 Nov 20180.25
29 Nov 20180.22
7 Dec 20180.13
14 Dec 20180.16
21 Dec 20180.16
31 Dec 20180.21
8 Jan 20190.15
15 Jan 20190.19
23 Jan 20190.18
30 Jan 20190.18
6 Feb 20190.18
13 Feb 20190.18
21 Feb 20190.16
28 Feb 20190.21
7 Mar 20190.17
14 Mar 20190.17
21 Mar 20190.13
28 Mar 20190.16
4 Apr 20190.18
11 Apr 20190.16
18 Apr 20190.19
26 Apr 20190.23
3 May 20190.21
10 May 20190.21
17 May 20190.19
24 May 20190.16
3 Jun 20190.25
10 Jun 20190.25
17 Jun 20190.23
24 Jun 20190.3
1 Jul 20190.25
9 Jul 20190.15
16 Jul 20190.26
23 Jul 20190.25
30 Jul 20190.21
6 Aug 20190.13
13 Aug 20190.02
20 Aug 20190.05
27 Aug 2019-0.04
4 Sep 20190.04
11 Sep 20190.07
18 Sep 20190.03
25 Sep 20190.05
2 Oct 20190.12
9 Oct 20190.12
17 Oct 20190.16
24 Oct 20190.19
31 Oct 20190.17
7 Nov 20190.24
15 Nov 20190.23
22 Nov 20190.16
2 Dec 20190.22
9 Dec 20190.2
16 Dec 20190.24
23 Dec 20190.29
31 Dec 20190.34
8 Jan 20200.29
15 Jan 20200.23
23 Jan 20200.23
30 Jan 20200.16
6 Feb 20200.21
13 Feb 20200.17
21 Feb 20200.12
28 Feb 20200.27
6 Mar 20200.25
13 Mar 20200.45
20 Mar 20200.55
27 Mar 20200.47
3 Apr 20200.39
13 Apr 20200.51
20 Apr 20200.43
27 Apr 20200.43
4 May 20200.45
11 May 20200.56
18 May 20200.55
26 May 20200.51
2 Jun 20200.51
9 Jun 20200.64
16 Jun 20200.54
23 Jun 20200.54
30 Jun 20200.5
8 Jul 20200.51
15 Jul 20200.48
22 Jul 20200.46
29 Jul 20200.46
5 Aug 20200.44
12 Aug 20200.53
19 Aug 20200.54
26 Aug 20200.53
2 Sep 20200.52
10 Sep 20200.54
17 Sep 20200.56
24 Sep 20200.53
1 Oct 20200.54
8 Oct 20200.65
16 Oct 20200.62
23 Oct 20200.67
30 Oct 20200.74
6 Nov 20200.67
16 Nov 20200.72
23 Nov 20200.7
1 Dec 20200.75
8 Dec 20200.78
15 Dec 20200.81
22 Dec 20200.8
30 Dec 20200.81
7 Jan 20210.94
14 Jan 20210.99
22 Jan 20210.97
29 Jan 20211
5 Feb 20211.1
12 Feb 20211.09
22 Feb 20211.26
1 Mar 20211.32
8 Mar 20211.42
15 Mar 20211.48
22 Mar 20211.54
29 Mar 20211.59
5 Apr 20211.56
12 Apr 20211.51
19 Apr 20211.45
26 Apr 20211.4
3 May 20211.47
10 May 20211.47
17 May 20211.48
24 May 20211.46
1 Jun 20211.46
8 Jun 20211.39
15 Jun 20211.35
22 Jun 20211.23
29 Jun 20211.22
7 Jul 20211.11
14 Jul 20211.14
21 Jul 20211.08
28 Jul 20211.06
4 Aug 20211.02
11 Aug 20211.12
18 Aug 20211.04
25 Aug 20211.12
1 Sep 20211.11
9 Sep 20211.07
16 Sep 20211.11
23 Sep 20211.14
30 Sep 20211.24
7 Oct 20211.26
15 Oct 20211.18
22 Oct 20211.18
29 Oct 20211.07
5 Nov 20211.06
15 Nov 20211.1
22 Nov 20211
30 Nov 20210.91
7 Dec 20210.78
14 Dec 20210.77
21 Dec 20210.78
29 Dec 20210.8
5 Jan 20220.88
12 Jan 20220.82
20 Jan 20220.75
27 Jan 20220.63
3 Feb 20220.63
10 Feb 20220.42
17 Feb 20220.48
25 Feb 20220.42
4 Mar 20220.24
11 Mar 20220.25
18 Mar 20220.17
25 Mar 20220.18
1 Apr 2022-0.05
8 Apr 20220.19
18 Apr 20220.39
25 Apr 20220.18
2 May 20220.26
9 May 20220.44
16 May 20220.3
23 May 20220.21
31 May 20220.32
7 Jun 20220.23
14 Jun 20220.04
22 Jun 20220.1
29 Jun 20220.04
7 Jul 2022-0.02
14 Jul 2022-0.19
21 Jul 2022-0.19
28 Jul 2022-0.17
4 Aug 2022-0.35
11 Aug 2022-0.36
18 Aug 2022-0.34
25 Aug 2022-0.32
1 Sep 2022-0.25
9 Sep 2022-0.23
16 Sep 2022-0.4
23 Sep 2022-0.51
30 Sep 2022-0.39
7 Oct 2022-0.41
17 Oct 2022-0.43
24 Oct 2022-0.25
31 Oct 2022-0.41
7 Nov 2022-0.5
15 Nov 2022-0.57
22 Nov 2022-0.71
30 Nov 2022-0.7
7 Dec 2022-0.84
14 Dec 2022-0.74
21 Dec 2022-0.53
29 Dec 2022-0.51
6 Jan 2023-0.69
13 Jan 2023-0.73
23 Jan 2023-0.69
30 Jan 2023-0.7
6 Feb 2023-0.81
13 Feb 2023-0.8
21 Feb 2023-0.72
28 Feb 2023-0.89
7 Mar 2023-1.03
14 Mar 2023-0.56
21 Mar 2023-0.58
28 Mar 2023-0.47
4 Apr 2023-0.49
11 Apr 2023-0.6
18 Apr 2023-0.61
25 Apr 2023-0.46
2 May 2023-0.53
9 May 2023-0.48
16 May 2023-0.52
23 May 2023-0.56
31 May 2023-0.76
7 Jun 2023-0.77
14 Jun 2023-0.91
22 Jun 2023-0.97
29 Jun 2023-1.02
7 Jul 2023-0.88
14 Jul 2023-0.91
21 Jul 2023-0.98
28 Jul 2023-0.91
4 Aug 2023-0.73
11 Aug 2023-0.73
18 Aug 2023-0.66
25 Aug 2023-0.78
1 Sep 2023-0.69
11 Sep 2023-0.68
18 Sep 2023-0.73
25 Sep 2023-0.54
2 Oct 2023-0.43
10 Oct 2023-0.3
17 Oct 2023-0.36
24 Oct 2023-0.19
31 Oct 2023-0.19
7 Nov 2023-0.33
14 Nov 2023-0.36
21 Nov 2023-0.45
29 Nov 2023-0.37
6 Dec 2023-0.48
13 Dec 2023-0.42
20 Dec 2023-0.48
28 Dec 2023-0.42
5 Jan 2024-0.35
12 Jan 2024-0.18
22 Jan 2024-0.26
29 Jan 2024-0.21
5 Feb 2024-0.29
12 Feb 2024-0.29
20 Feb 2024-0.32
27 Feb 2024-0.39
5 Mar 2024-0.41
12 Mar 2024-0.42
19 Mar 2024-0.38
26 Mar 2024-0.32
3 Apr 2024-0.32
10 Apr 2024-0.42
17 Apr 2024-0.34
24 Apr 2024-0.24
1 May 2024-0.33
8 May 2024-0.36
15 May 2024-0.37
22 May 2024-0.43
30 May 2024-0.37
6 Jun 2024-0.44
13 Jun 2024-0.44
21 Jun 2024-0.45
28 Jun 2024-0.35
8 Jul 2024-0.34
15 Jul 2024-0.21
22 Jul 2024-0.24
29 Jul 2024-0.19
5 Aug 2024-0.11
12 Aug 2024-0.11
19 Aug 2024-0.2
26 Aug 2024-0.09
3 Sep 2024-0.04
10 Sep 20240.06
17 Sep 20240.06
24 Sep 20240.25
1 Oct 20240.13
8 Oct 20240.06
16 Oct 20240.09
23 Oct 20240.17
30 Oct 20240.14
6 Nov 20240.15
14 Nov 20240.09
21 Nov 20240.09
29 Nov 20240.05
6 Dec 20240.05
13 Dec 20240.15
20 Dec 20240.22
30 Dec 20240.31
7 Jan 20250.37
14 Jan 20250.41
22 Jan 20250.31
29 Jan 20250.34
5 Feb 20250.26
12 Feb 20250.26
20 Feb 20250.22
27 Feb 20250.22
6 Mar 20250.33
13 Mar 20250.33
20 Mar 20250.29
27 Mar 20250.41
3 Apr 20250.35
10 Apr 20250.56
17 Apr 20250.53
25 Apr 20250.55
2 May 20250.5
9 May 20250.49
16 May 20250.45
23 May 20250.51
2 Jun 20250.52
9 Jun 20250.48
16 Jun 20250.49
24 Jun 20250.55
1 Jul 20250.48
9 Jul 20250.48
16 Jul 20250.58
23 Jul 20250.52
30 Jul 20250.44
6 Aug 20250.53
13 Aug 20250.57
20 Aug 20250.55
27 Aug 20250.65
4 Sep 20250.58
11 Sep 20250.49
18 Sep 20250.54
25 Sep 20250.54
2 Oct 20250.55
9 Oct 20250.54
17 Oct 20250.56
24 Oct 20250.54
31 Oct 20250.51
7 Nov 20250.56
17 Nov 20250.53
24 Nov 20250.58
2 Dec 20250.58
9 Dec 20250.57
16 Dec 20250.67
23 Dec 20250.7
31 Dec 20250.71
8 Jan 20260.7
15 Jan 20260.61
23 Jan 20260.64
30 Jan 20260.74
6 Feb 20260.72
13 Feb 20260.64
23 Feb 20260.6
2 Mar 20260.58
9 Mar 20260.56
16 Mar 20260.55
23 Mar 20260.51
30 Mar 20260.53
6 Apr 20260.5
13 Apr 20260.52
20 Apr 20260.54
27 Apr 20260.57
4 May 20260.5
11 May 20260.47
18 May 20260.54
26 May 20260.49
2 Jun 20260.41
9 Jun 20260.4
16 Jun 20260.38
24 Jun 20260.3
1 Jul 20260.31
9 Jul 20260.38
16 Jul 20260.41
23 Jul 20260.34
30 Jul 20260.45
6 Aug 20260.44
13 Aug 20260.48
20 Aug 20260.5
27 Aug 20260.47
3 Sep 20260.43
11 Sep 20260.33
18 Sep 20260.25
25 Sep 20260.36
2 Oct 20260.45
9 Oct 20260.44
19 Oct 20260.38
26 Oct 20260.32
2 Nov 20260.32
6 Nov 20260.35

Recent observations

Datepercentage points
6 November 20260.35
5 November 20260.38
4 November 20260.32
3 November 20260.34
2 November 20260.32
30 October 20260.38
29 October 20260.37
28 October 20260.38
27 October 20260.29
26 October 20260.32
23 October 20260.31
22 October 20260.31
21 October 20260.32
20 October 20260.33
19 October 20260.38
16 October 20260.35
15 October 20260.33
14 October 20260.37
13 October 20260.42
9 October 20260.44
8 October 20260.47
7 October 20260.51
6 October 20260.48
5 October 20260.47

Source: FRED · Attribution and methods